施罗德投资：经济“软着陆”概率上升 为短期英国债与欧债长仓带来良机

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in bond yields has been excessive, and the potential for an economic "soft landing" presents attractive entry points for investors [1] - Schroders has increased the probability of a "soft landing" scenario while lowering the chances of a "hard landing," reflecting early signs of stabilization in labor market indicators [1] - The recent rise in bond yields provides an opportunity for cautious economies, such as the Eurozone, to establish long positions in bonds, with Japan and Canada also presenting strategic investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The outlook for UK short-term government bonds is positive due to signs of inflation easing, a loosening labor market, and anticipated slight fiscal tightening in 2026 [2] - The US economy is expected to maintain good growth through 2026, supported by the "One Big Beautiful Bill," despite a weak local labor market [2] - The US interest rate curve is expected to steepen, reflecting the weak fiscal situation characterized by a large budget deficit and rising debt-to-GDP ratio [2] Group 3 - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a rate cut and an expansion of the balance sheet through asset purchases, which is seen as a positive for short-term US government bonds and global liquidity [3] - The corporate credit outlook remains cautious due to narrow spread valuations, but slight upgrades in ratings have been made considering the supportive macro environment [3] - Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities and covered bonds continue to be preferred choices in bond allocations [3]