2026年，全球生物制药行业有哪些新变局？

Core Insights - The global biotechnology industry is at a pivotal turning point in 2026, marked by a significant rebound in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, with 173 BD transactions in 2025, a notable increase from 136 in 2024, and total transaction values reaching $146.8 billion, up 218% from the previous year [1][2] - The changing regulatory environment, including the implementation of the IRA and the legislative challenges of the Biodefense Act, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is redefining capital flows and asset pricing logic [1] Industry Transaction Evolution - The biopharmaceutical sector is transitioning from an abnormal to a normal state in terms of transaction activity, following a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a notable decline in 2023-2024 due to valuation discrepancies and multiple uncertainties [1][2] Transaction Trends and Preferences - In 2025, 58% of the total transaction value was attributed to marketed products and late-stage clinical assets, reflecting a clear preference among pharmaceutical companies for lower-risk assets amid a looming $300 billion patent cliff [2][3] Emerging Treatment Areas and Technologies - The focus of investment is shifting, with neurological diseases approaching oncology in transaction value, indicating a significant change in investment priorities [3] - Cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, driven by the GLP-1 drug trend, have become the third-largest investment hotspot, while interest in rare diseases and gene therapy has cooled [4] - New technological platforms such as bispecific antibodies and molecular glue degraders are emerging, while AI applications are rapidly transitioning from concept validation to integration into workflows, enhancing clinical trial success rates [4] China's Market Growth - The Chinese biopharmaceutical market has seen a tenfold increase in Western capital investment, growing from $6 billion in 2020 to $61 billion by Q3 2025, now accounting for 35% of global alliance investment [5] - China's shift from a "fast follower" to an "innovation source" is supported by a flexible regulatory environment and strategic government backing, fostering rapid drug development [5] Future Outlook - The biopharmaceutical industry is at a critical crossroads in 2026, characterized by substantial cash reserves, imminent patent cliffs, evolving technology platforms, and changing geopolitical dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges [6] - For Chinese biopharmaceutical companies, this period represents a golden opportunity to engage in the global innovation ecosystem and enhance independent innovation capabilities [6]