美联储2026或现超预期降息，黄金牛市再获强力支撑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates more than currently anticipated due to a deteriorating labor market and weak economic indicators [1][2][4] - The labor market shows signs of continued loosening, with a decrease in the quit rate and a rise in unemployment rates, suggesting weak labor demand rather than structural labor shortages [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent employment report highlights modest job growth concentrated in education and health services, while cyclical industries show weakness [1][4] Group 2 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with differing opinions on the extent of interest rate cuts, as some members advocate for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [2][3] - The Fed's "dot plot" indicates that only one additional rate cut is expected in 2026, based on assumptions of stronger economic growth and lower unemployment [2][3] - The concept of the "natural rate" (R*) is discussed, with estimates ranging from 2.6% to 3.9%, indicating that the current policy is approaching a neutral stance but remains restrictive [3] Group 3 - The real estate sector and other interest-sensitive industries are under pressure, reflecting the ongoing suppression of economic activity by current policies [4] - Attention is shifting towards the potential successor of Jerome Powell, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][6] - The market's response to a politically aligned nominee may be muted in the short term, but the fundamental economic conditions will be more significant in the medium term [6] Group 4 - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios beyond stocks and bonds to hedge against inflation, especially in a more unstable macroeconomic environment [7] - Gold tends to perform well during periods of weak economic growth, while commodities perform better during strong growth, indicating a tactical approach to investment strategies [7] - The dollar faces challenges in a changing economic landscape, and its response to negative growth news will be crucial for its status as a safe-haven currency [7]