聚酯产业链有望走出板块性行情，化工龙头ETF（516220）涨超3%

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain is expected to experience a sector-wide market trend driven by a dual resonance of "cyclical reversal and emerging demand" in 2026, following a prolonged down cycle of approximately 3.5 years in the chemical industry [3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry is entering a low growth phase due to a continuous decline in capital investment and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas production capacity [3]. - The price of PX has been rising due to increased demand from overseas oil adjustments, leading to tighter PX supply [3]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-regulated production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will be expanded as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - BOPET prices have been steadily increasing since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [4]. - A PTA facility in East China with a capacity of 3.6 million tons has reduced its output due to operational issues, with the recovery timeline still pending [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for reversing the trend of internal competition, with conditions such as nearing the end of capacity expansion, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [5]. - The chemical sector is expected to undergo structural optimization on the supply side, with domestic policies frequently emphasizing "anti-involution" [6]. - The chemical industry is at the bottom of its down cycle and is gradually moving towards an up cycle, with emerging demands likely to enhance chemical valuations [7].