Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the policy strengthening the "meat and milk resonance" logic is favorable for the reversal of the raw milk cycle, with rising beef prices improving cash flow from cattle sales and indicating a potential turning point in the raw milk cycle by 2026 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced safeguard measures for imported beef, which will be implemented from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, involving country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on imports [2] - The combination of quotas and tariffs is expected to tighten the overall beef import market, impacting supply and supporting beef prices [2] Group 2 - Domestic beef and beef prices have been strengthening since 2025, primarily due to tightened import policies and ongoing reductions in domestic cattle inventory, leading to a sustained supply constraint [3] - The import quotas for beef from 2026 to 2028 are set at 2.688 million tons, 2.742 million tons, and 2.797 million tons respectively, representing a 6% reduction compared to the 2024 import volume of 2.87 million tons [3] - The combination of quotas and tariffs is expected to support beef prices by restricting both supply and price dynamics in the market [3]
财通证券:牛肉进口政策落地 肉奶共振利好牧业