中邮证券：光热有望在电力市场化中重新被定价 有望成为具备竞争力的新能源产业

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power, targeting an installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with the cost per kilowatt-hour expected to be comparable to coal power [1]. Group 1: Policy and Market Development - On December 23, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to support the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming for a total installed capacity of around 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [1]. - The solar thermal power industry in China has matured, with significant cost reductions, making it a competitive renewable energy sector [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - China has successfully mastered mainstream solar thermal power technologies, including tower, trough, and Fresnel systems, establishing a leading global solar thermal power industry chain [2]. - The construction cost per kilowatt for solar thermal power plants has decreased from approximately 30,000 yuan a decade ago to 15,000 yuan, with the cost per kilowatt-hour now around 0.6 yuan [2]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Solar thermal power has dual functions as a peak-shaving power source and long-duration energy storage, providing long-cycle peak-shaving capabilities and inertia to the power system [3]. - The guidelines encourage compensation for reliable capacity of solar thermal power and support participation in auxiliary service markets to generate revenue [3]. Group 4: Green Premium Potential - The value of green certificates and CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) is theoretically equivalent, but CCER may achieve higher premiums as the global carbon market develops, providing an additional revenue source for solar thermal power plants [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Xizi Clean Energy (002534) [5].