高关税时代通胀为何“不按套路出牌”？两项研究揭示背后逻辑

Core Insights - Recent studies indicate that the high tariffs imposed in the U.S. have not led to the significant inflation that many economists predicted, with historical data suggesting that tariff increases often slow down price rises instead [1][2] - Both studies conclude that while tariffs may cause a slight increase in inflation, the overall impact is limited due to reduced consumer and business demand, which dampens economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Research from the San Francisco Fed shows that a 1% increase in tariffs correlates with a 0.6% decrease in inflation rates, contradicting traditional economic expectations [1] - A separate study from Northwestern University found that while tariffs can lead to a minor uptick in inflation, the negative effects on demand from reduced trade and manufacturing activity offset this impact [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Employment - Despite the tariffs, the U.S. economy has shown overall growth since their implementation, although signs of weakness are emerging, such as stagnation in job growth since April of last year [2] - A key manufacturing index fell to a 14-month low in December, indicating potential challenges ahead for the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Actual vs. Nominal Tariff Rates - Economists highlight that due to loopholes and exemptions in tariff regulations, the effective average tariff rate in the U.S. is 14.1%, significantly lower than the nominal rate of 27.4% [3] - Historical context is provided, noting that the current level of tariffs has not been seen since the 1930s, raising questions about the applicability of past economic patterns to the present situation [3]