ETO Markets 外汇：英镑25年涨7% 26年核心看英美央行政策分化

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is expected to exhibit a volatile upward trend against the US dollar in 2025, supported by a weaker dollar and diverging monetary policies between the UK and the US [1][3]. Group 1: External Environment - The US dollar index is projected to decline significantly in 2025, with an annual drop of approximately 9% [3]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points during the year, leading to decreased attractiveness of dollar assets and a shift towards non-US currencies, benefiting the pound [3]. - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing, with only a 50 basis point rate cut for the year and a stable rate at the end of the year, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation risks [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy will remain a key variable influencing the GBP/USD exchange rate in 2026, with market expectations of potential further rate cuts, though inflation risks may limit the extent of easing [3][5]. - The Bank of England's easing expectations are relatively moderate, with some institutions predicting possible rate cuts in 2026, but actual adjustments may be less than initially anticipated due to sticky service sector inflation and economic recovery uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Market Focus and Technical Analysis - In the short term, market attention will be on signals from the US and UK central banks and key economic data [4]. - US manufacturing and consumer confidence indicators will impact perceptions of the Federal Reserve's policy path, while UK inflation trends will influence the Bank of England's future policy [5]. - Technically, the GBP/USD pair has support around 1.3350 and resistance near 1.3480, indicating that the exchange rate will be closely tied to policy expectations and fundamental changes [5].