Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-06 03:40Core Viewpoint - Morningstar has downgraded the fair value estimate of China Resources Beer (00291) by 3% to HKD 37.5, while also reducing the earnings forecast for 2025-2029 by 4-5% [1] Group 1: Financial Estimates - The company is still considered undervalued, supported by a 4.4% dividend yield expected in 2025 [1] - Sales growth forecast for the company's liquor business has been revised down from 7% to 3% over the next five years, reflecting weak industry demand [1] - The sales and net profit expectations for 2025 have been lowered by 0.2% and 4% respectively, due to rising operating costs and declining profitability in the liquor segment [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The performance of the "Jinsha Liquor" brand portfolio in the high-end liquor market is expected to lag behind other brands [1] - Consumer channels for both beer and liquor businesses will continue to face challenges in the second half of 2025, with consumer confidence remaining weak [1] - The price growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced by 2 percentage points due to pressure on low-end beer prices [1] Group 3: Growth Drivers - Heineken's channel expansion remains the main driver for volume growth in the beer business [1]