2025年末港股“反常”逻辑：谁在撤离？谁将归来？

Core Viewpoint - The abnormal behavior of the Hong Kong stock market at the end of 2025 is primarily attributed to liquidity tightening due to "deposit migration" and a reduction in southbound capital inflows, which are the main reasons for the market's weakness in recent months. Looking ahead to 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and stable macroeconomic conditions in mainland China, with a focus on cyclical and technology-oriented companies [2][12][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The relationship between the offshore RMB exchange rate and the Hang Seng Index has historically been strong, but this correlation broke down at the end of November 2025, leading to unexpected market behavior [6]. - Despite a decrease in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), the stock market experienced contraction, indicating that the decline in HIBOR was not due to improved liquidity but rather to deposit migration [5][11]. - A significant outflow of funds from Hong Kong was observed at the end of 2025, coinciding with a rise in the USD/HKD exchange rate, which further contributed to the market's volatility [7][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook for 2026 - The southbound capital inflow is expected to increase in 2026, driven by the listing of quality companies, which will help mitigate the volatility caused by foreign capital movements [12][15]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is anticipated to be better than in the previous year, with cyclical sectors likely to dominate the market as geopolitical tensions ease [15]. - Companies that combine cyclical growth with technological advancements, such as Alibaba, are expected to be key focus areas, as they can leverage retail growth to support investments in technology [15][16].