Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-06 04:30Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are embracing a new global upcycle in the excavator market, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025, indicating a synchronized global demand recovery [1] Group 1: Market Insights - Japan's construction machinery demand remains resilient despite a significant drop in downstream demand post-bubble economy, with excavator ownership only declining by 30% [2] - In Japan, domestic sales are decoupling from real estate, leading to a stable sales volume, with a shift towards rental and second-hand export models [2] - China's excavator operating hours are still at a high level, providing a buffer for demand, supported by replacement needs and decoupling from real estate [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. market faces a long-term shortage of excavator ownership, with stock replacement driving demand, supported by both residential and non-residential investments [3] - Future growth drivers include structural support from AI data center infrastructure, the return of U.S. manufacturing boosting large-scale infrastructure growth, and potential stimulation of the housing market following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Historical insights from Komatsu's entry into the U.S. market highlight the importance of macro factors, quality, company culture, and localization in overcoming market barriers [3] - Chinese manufacturers are positioned to capitalize on the shift of U.S. construction machinery from premium brands to more general industrial products, leveraging their supply chain advantages and manufacturing efficiency [3] Group 3: Asia, Africa, and Latin America Market - The Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets are primarily driven by mining and energy sectors, with Chinese brands capturing over 40% of the excavator market share in these regions by 2023 [4] - China's infrastructure investment is effectively replacing energy imports from these regions, indicating a strategic link between excavator exports and infrastructure development [4] - The potential for new excavator markets to grow by 60% exists if the share of second-hand excavators from Europe and the U.S. in these regions decreases from 50% to 20% [4] - Chinese enterprises are transitioning from commodity exports to capital exports, establishing local manufacturing in Indonesia to enhance market share and create new pathways into developed countries [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry (600031), XCMG Machinery (000425), Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), LiuGong Machinery (000528), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100) [4]