邓正红能源软实力：风险溢价与石油软实力规则博弈 核心是能源流通的定义权

Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela and the U.S. plan to continue pressuring Venezuelan oil exports have elevated the value of oil's soft power, leading to an increase in international oil prices on January 5 [1][2][3] - The U.S. is implementing a systematic blockade on Venezuelan oil exports through sanctions, oil tanker seizures, and military threats, aiming to reshape global energy circulation rules [2][3] - The current oil price increase reflects market concerns over potential short-term supply disruptions due to the geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela [3] Oil Price Movements - As of January 5, 2023, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $58.32 per barrel, up $1.00, a 1.74% increase, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.76 per barrel, up $1.01, a 1.66% increase [1] - The U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has introduced new geopolitical tensions, with Trump stating that the U.S. will temporarily manage Venezuela and require "full access" to its oil supply [1] Saudi Arabia's Pricing Strategy - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its flagship crude oil grade for the third consecutive month, adjusting the price of Arab Light crude oil for February sales to Asia to a premium of $0.30 over the regional benchmark [1] - This price adjustment coincides with OPEC and its allies' decision to maintain production cuts in the first quarter [1] Soft Power Analysis - The U.S. sanctions are designed to systematically eliminate Venezuela's oil export capacity, creating a "non-contact blockade" through legal, financial, and public opinion channels [2] - Venezuela faces a soft power dilemma due to the degradation of its institutional resources, with its oil company PDVSA suffering from governance and credit system issues [2] Long-term Energy Market Dynamics - The U.S. sanctions are pushing a restructuring of the global energy value chain, aiming to redefine the oil pricing power structure [3] - The future of energy markets is shifting from a unipolar structure dominated by the dollar and Western shipping to a multipolar competitive rule system, requiring major oil-importing countries to actively participate in the reconstruction of energy rules [3]