智汇集团创始人夏春解读2026全球经济与投资逻辑：低风险配置穿越市场波动

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 3%, reflecting a new normal of both upward momentum and downward pressure [1][2] - Upward momentum is driven by the deepening of globalization and the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in enterprises, while downward pressure stems from global debt expansion and demographic challenges such as aging populations and declining birth rates [2] Capital Market Analysis - In the U.S. stock market, concerns about AI valuations are somewhat overstated, as the tech sector's major companies show improved revenue performance despite lower valuations compared to 2021 [3] - A structural shift is occurring in the U.S. market, with funds moving from tech stocks to traditional sectors like banking and real estate, which are seen as safer investments [3] - For the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to surpass 4,000 points in 2025, driven by valuation increases, with a shift to profit-driven growth in 2026 [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to benefit from dual liquidity easing, with significant capital inflows expected to continue into 2026, supported by a recovering local economy [5] Asset Allocation Strategy - A pyramid asset allocation model is recommended, consisting of 40% in guaranteed assets, 30% in defensive assets, 20% in equity assets, and 10% in high-risk assets [7] - The focus should be on low-risk investments to achieve long-term capital appreciation, with adjustments based on individual income stability and risk profiles [7] - In the fixed income market, a range-bound environment is expected, with limited interest rate cuts, while the precious metals market, particularly gold, is projected to have a solid long-term upward trend [6]