美国攻击委内瑞拉，原油、黄金和美元市场如何应对？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military action against Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, has significant implications for global oil supply, the dollar's performance, and the potential risks associated with safe-haven assets [1]. Oil Market - Venezuela possesses some of the largest oil reserves globally, but long-term sanctions and insufficient investment have limited its production and export capacity [3]. - The military action and shipping disruptions have heightened market concerns over supply uncertainty, leading to a temporary increase in oil prices [5]. - The price increase primarily reflects a risk premium rather than a change in demand, with short-term volatility expected in the heavy crude oil market due to Venezuela's unique supply characteristics [5]. - In the medium to long term, if stability returns and international capital re-enters to repair oil fields and port facilities, Venezuela's production and exports could recover, potentially increasing global supply and exerting downward pressure on oil prices [5]. Dollar Performance - In the short term, the dollar may strengthen due to increased market demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [7]. - Investors typically allocate funds to highly liquid and creditworthy assets, such as the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, during such events [7]. - However, the long-term drivers of the dollar's value remain tied to U.S. inflation levels, employment conditions, and monetary policy, with regional events unlikely to fundamentally alter the dollar's core status [7]. Gold Market - The impact on gold is more indirect; while it may receive some short-term support due to its safe-haven attributes, its price is also influenced by interest rate expectations, dollar performance, and asset allocation [9]. - The direct influence of military conflicts on gold prices is limited, with its performance more closely related to actual interest rates, dollar trends, and risk management needs in investment portfolios [9]. - Understanding gold's role in different market environments through systematic learning is more beneficial than reacting impulsively to news [9]. Summary - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to create short-term volatility in oil and gold markets while providing temporary support for the dollar, but these effects are largely driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [9].