2026年，为什么有色金属仍值得期待

Group 1 - Recent surge in prices of non-ferrous metals like gold, silver, platinum, and copper has captured global attention [1] - Despite recent volatility, the market remains highly focused on the fluctuations of precious and non-ferrous metals [3] - The aluminum industry is experiencing multiple favorable factors, indicating a potential for future price increases [4] Group 2 - Since 2025, prices of various non-ferrous metals, including aluminum, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, have entered a significant upward cycle, with many showing over 30% year-on-year increases [5][6] - The recent price increases are attributed to macroeconomic changes, industry dynamics, and market sentiment [7] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a stronger upward trend, with lithium carbonate prices recently doubling compared to earlier this year [8] Group 3 - Historical data shows that during periods of a weakening dollar and declining real interest rates, precious metals and copper often lead to a collective rise in non-ferrous metals [11] - Current conditions suggest a continuation of this trend, with aluminum prices expected to remain high due to tightening supply and recovering demand [13] Group 4 - Since late 2022, there has been a notable increase in the valuation of quality assets in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, driven by long-term capital inflows [14] - Companies in the resource sector, particularly those with significant profit growth, have become focal points for large-scale investments [14] - China Hongqiao, a major player in the aluminum industry, has seen its stock price increase significantly due to its cost advantages and profit growth [15] Group 5 - Analysts predict that aluminum prices will continue to rise, with estimates for 2026-2028 profits adjusted upwards to 5000-6000 yuan per ton [24] - The company has a strong position in the market, with self-sufficient alumina supply and reduced costs due to its energy strategies [28][29] - The company’s stock buyback initiatives and high dividend yields have further solidified its attractiveness to investors [39]