南方基金：海外变局下，A股如何布局？

Market Performance Review - Domestic asset performance showed divergence, with A-shares experiencing fluctuations and sectors like non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and telecommunications leading in gains. Bond yields remained stable, and the RMB appreciated slightly against a basket of currencies [2] - In the Hong Kong market, all benchmark indices declined, with the Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Small Cap indices underperforming. However, sectors such as raw materials, energy, and finance saw notable gains [2] - In the overseas market, US stocks and bonds experienced high-level fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs before stabilizing. Following the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts, short-term US Treasury yields declined while long-term yields remained high. Commodity performance was mixed, with metals like gold, silver, and copper reaching historical highs, while oil prices showed weakness [3] Macroeconomic Interpretation - The macroeconomic environment for Q1 2026 is expected to be stable, with a focus on the transition of old and new economic drivers. New policies are being implemented, including a reduction in the scale of subsidies for consumer goods and adjustments to the scope and limits of subsidies for appliances and vehicles [4] - Monetary policy is anticipated to be flexible, with potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The US is expected to restart fiscal expansion, supporting its economy, while AI-related capital expenditures are likely to continue growing [5] Market Outlook - The macro strategy department maintains a strategic optimism for the equity market, considering domestic and international environments, market positioning, and valuations [7] - Within the A-share market, three styles are highlighted: small-cap stocks are expected to benefit from seasonal effects; growth stocks, despite high valuations, may still offer opportunities due to the AI wave; and dividend stocks are seen as attractive alternatives in a low-interest-rate environment [8] - For the Hong Kong market, positive domestic policies and economic stabilization, along with potential foreign capital inflows, suggest greater elasticity for Hong Kong stocks [9] - In the bond market, low yields are expected to remain stable, with limited appeal for bonds, while the focus will be on fiscal policy risks [9] - In the overseas market, US inflation expectations are not expected to be significantly impacted by short-term economic stabilization, and the high valuations in US stocks may face challenges. Additionally, commodity prices for copper and gold are expected to rise, while oil prices may remain weak [10]