人民币汇率强势升破6.98，创近两年半新高！背后有哪些驱动力？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, breaking the 6.98 threshold, signals the beginning of a new appreciation cycle driven by both internal and external factors [2][3] External Drivers - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline of 9.04% in 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2003, due to factors such as the impact of tariff policies, the onset of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and rising risk premiums on US Treasury bonds [2] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US, with the ten-year bond spread improving from -150 basis points in 2024 to -30 basis points by the end of 2025, has attracted capital towards RMB assets [2] Internal Support - China's trade surplus reached a record high of $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, leading to a significant increase in foreign exchange settlements, which directly supported RMB appreciation [2] - The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience with a GDP growth of 5.2% in 2025, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, reflecting improved economic confidence [2] - The People's Bank of China employed various policy tools to manage the exchange rate effectively, including adjustments to the central parity rate and foreign exchange reserve requirements, enhancing the precision of policy interventions [2] Market Restructuring - There has been a notable shift in corporate behavior from hoarding foreign currency to actively settling foreign exchange, with the settlement rate increasing from 63% to 68% in 2025 [2] - Capital flows have shown a balanced pattern, with net inflows of northbound funds exceeding 480 billion yuan, while the expansion of QDII quotas has allowed domestic capital to flow back into global markets [2] - The volatility of RMB exchange rates has decreased, indicating a more rational market expectation, with implied volatility for one-year put options dropping from 1.8% to 0.9% [2] Future Challenges - Export companies face profit margin pressures due to RMB appreciation, with average costs increasing by 4-6%, particularly affecting leading firms in the appliance sector [2] - The risk of a divergence in Federal Reserve policy could lead to a temporary rebound in the US dollar, impacting RMB exchange rates [2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as issues surrounding Taiwan, could trigger risk-averse behavior, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and potential pressure on the RMB [2] Institutional Outlook - Various financial institutions project a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with estimates suggesting a range of 6.8 to 7.0 in 2026, driven by expanding trade surpluses and accelerated capital account opening [3] - The market is expected to adapt to a dual-directional fluctuation in exchange rates, emphasizing the importance of using derivative tools and focusing on fundamentals to navigate the evolving currency landscape [3]