港股国企ETF（159519）涨超0.8%，人民币升值与盈利预期成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's state-owned enterprise ETF (159519) rose over 0.8%, driven by the appreciation of the Renminbi and profit expectations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - By 2026, the capital market is expected to feature a dual focus on "technological innovation + dividend assets" [1] - In terms of technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing are identified as core themes, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" elevating "AI+" to a national strategy, predicting that the smart economy will become a significant growth driver by 2030 [1] - The PB valuation of technology sectors such as electronics, communications, and computers has reached historical highs, indicating strong market pricing for cutting-edge technologies [1] Group 2: Dividend Assets - The cash dividends for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 constituent stocks are projected to reach CNY 10,116 billion and CNY 18,192 billion in 2024, respectively, with dividend payout ratios exceeding 40% [1] - The trend of high dividends is expected to continue under policy guidance [1] Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and machinery are anticipated to strengthen their global competitiveness, with an expected market space increase of CNY 10 trillion over the next five years [1] - The chemical industry has shown signs of profit improvement, with a ROE of 7.47% [1] Group 4: Defense and Infrastructure - The military industry is poised for growth due to accelerated national defense modernization, with a projected 7.2% year-on-year increase in the defense budget by 2025 [1] - The commercial aerospace market is expected to exceed CNY 2.3 trillion in scale [1] - The power grid equipment sector will benefit from the construction of new power systems, with average annual investments expected to increase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1]