Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-06 06:27Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry Performance - Macau's gross gaming revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 20.9 billion MOP, meeting the lower end of market expectations, influenced by lower VIP room win rates in the last one to two weeks [1] - For the full year, gross gaming revenue is expected to rise slightly above 9%, compared to market expectations of 7% to 8% [1] - The number of inbound travelers to Macau from mainland China increased by 22% year-on-year, driven by tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, with total inbound travelers growing by 18% in November [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance and Market Share - The quarterly gross gaming revenue for the industry is projected to rise by 14% year-on-year to 66.1 billion MOP, accelerating from 1% to 13% growth in the first three quarters of the year, returning to 92% of pre-pandemic levels [1] - Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau saw slight increases in market share last month, while Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China are expected to be market share winners in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: MGM China's License Fee Increase - MGM China announced that its license fee will double to 3.5% of net revenue, with an annual cap raised to 18.83 million USD for this year [2] - This new agreement is expected to lead to a 6% to 7% downward adjustment in EBITDA forecasts for the next two fiscal years, and a 13% to 14% reduction in profit forecasts [2] - Consequently, the target price for MGM China has been lowered from 20.1 HKD to 18.4 HKD [2]