晨星：升农夫山泉2025-26年净利润至3%-5% 非水饮料类别将成为新增长驱动力

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar's report indicates that Nongfu Spring (09633) maintains its leadership in the packaged water market due to its scalable production and distribution network while expanding into non-water beverage sectors such as ready-to-drink tea and juice [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company has raised its net profit expectations for 2025-2026 by 3%-5% [1] - After facing negative online sentiment in 2024, the packaged water business is expected to regain sales momentum [1] - The non-water beverage business is projected to maintain strong double-digit growth in 2025 [1] Group 2: Sales Growth Expectations - The ready-to-drink tea business is expected to see a 20% year-on-year sales growth in the second half of 2025, benefiting from strong product differentiation and channel expansion [1] - The forecast for year-on-year sales growth in the packaged water segment for the second half of 2025 has been revised from 9% to 14%, with expectations of gaining market share from competitors [1] Group 3: Product Expansion and Future Outlook - Nongfu Spring has expanded its ready-to-drink tea product line from sugar-free options to include sugary sparkling products, which is anticipated to further drive sales growth in the coming years [1] - Other non-water beverage categories such as ready-to-drink juice and coffee are expected to become new drivers of revenue and profit growth [1]