Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-06 07:00Core Viewpoint - The roundtable discussion at Fudan University highlighted a significant shift in market expectations regarding the RMB exchange rate, indicating a transition from a one-sided depreciation to a dual-directional fluctuation pattern supported by fundamentals and policy expectations [1][4]. External Environment Analysis - The expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the debt burden from the "Great Beautiful Act" will likely force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and halt balance sheet reduction, weakening the long-term credit support for the dollar [2]. - Global capital is flowing out of dollar assets due to differentiated monetary policies among developed economies and the high valuation of U.S. stocks facing risks of disillusionment [2]. - China's economic growth target remains stable, with exports showing unexpected resilience under tariff pressures, supported by a healthy current account surplus [2]. Internal Factors - The RMB's attractiveness is increasing, leading to a trend of capital inflow that will further strengthen the RMB's performance [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to exhibit "moderate appreciation, dual-directional fluctuation, and range-bound operation" in the future [2]. RMB Exchange Rate Characteristics - In 2025, the RMB is expected to show an overall appreciation against the dollar, driven by a fundamental reversal in market expectations [4]. - The RMB's volatility is characterized by a high-to-low pattern, with implied volatility decreasing significantly in the latter half of the year [6]. - The convergence of onshore and offshore RMB prices indicates a strengthened market expectation for a stable and slightly stronger RMB [8]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The dollar is expected to remain weak in 2026 due to ongoing fiscal pressures and the need for the Federal Reserve to align with fiscal policy through interest rate cuts [9][10]. - China's economic resilience is anticipated to support a stronger RMB, with a GDP growth target around 5% and continued positive export growth [10][11]. - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level, using policy tools to prevent one-sided betting behavior in the market [11]. Strategies for Managing Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Companies are advised to adopt a risk-neutral approach, focusing on core business and managing exchange rate risks through professional financial tools [15]. - Innovative financing and hedging solutions should be developed to lower the cost of currency risk management for small and medium-sized enterprises [15]. - A proactive approach to asset-liability management and trading strategies is recommended, avoiding one-sided bets and focusing on range trading opportunities [15]. Long-term Considerations - The sustainable appreciation of the RMB is contingent upon the stability and resilience of the real economy, emphasizing the need for a strong macroeconomic foundation [16][18].