Group 1: Core Insights - Modern Dairy (01117) is positioned to benefit from rising raw milk prices, which will directly enhance the company's performance [1] - The company also generates income from the sale of cull cows and calves, which is expected to increase due to rising beef prices, providing significant earnings elasticity [1] - The current national fresh milk contract price is 3.03 yuan/kg, with an anticipated stabilization and recovery in milk prices by 2026 [1] Group 2: Raw Milk Market - The proportion of breeding cows in small to medium-sized farms is notably high, leading to potential supply shortages by 2026-2027 [1] - Domestic milk prices are currently lower than international prices, which is expected to suppress import volumes [1] - The demand for raw milk is projected to marginally increase due to the gradual establishment of deep processing capacity and improvements in the macro economy [1] Group 3: Beef Market - Historical high prices for live cattle in Shandong have exceeded 36 yuan/kg, with a significant industry capacity reduction of over 22% expected in 2024 [2] - Global cattle inventory has been decreasing since 2023, contributing to record high global beef prices [2] - Domestic live cattle prices are around 27 yuan/kg, with expectations for prices to reach historical highs due to reduced domestic production and rising international prices [2] Group 4: Valuation and Rating - The company is assigned a target price of 2.04 HKD per share based on a 10X PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a positive outlook for the industry [3] - The company is expected to have substantial growth potential as industry conditions improve [3]