Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-06 07:29Core Viewpoint - The arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro has minimal immediate impact on global oil prices due to Venezuela's current oil production being less than 1% of global output, with 60-90% of its oil exported to China, leading to a global supply surplus. However, in the medium to long term, the potential lifting of sanctions and the return of U.S. companies could restore production, increasing global supply and putting downward pressure on oil prices. The impact on China includes higher export prices and increased replacement costs, while Russia faces economic threats from lower oil prices [1][3][21]. Group 1: Current Oil Production and Market Impact - Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves globally, totaling 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of global reserves, but its actual production is significantly lower due to mismanagement and sanctions [8][10]. - Currently, Venezuela's oil production is less than 1% of global output, with an average daily production of around 90,000 to 110,000 barrels, a drastic decline from over 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s [12][13]. - The majority of Venezuela's oil, over 60%, is exported to China, which limits its impact on the global oil market [14][17]. Group 2: Future Projections and Geopolitical Implications - The geopolitical changes in Venezuela are unlikely to have a substantial effect on the global oil market, as the country's oil production is severely constrained [21]. - If Venezuela's oil production is restored, it could take 1 to 2 years, potentially increasing global supply and lowering oil prices [21]. - The shift in Venezuela's political landscape may lead to a reorientation of oil exports towards the Americas, reducing supply to China and increasing import costs by 20-30% for China, particularly in diesel and asphalt [21]. - The control of Venezuelan oil resources by the U.S. could impact the internationalization of the Renminbi, as it may strengthen the dollar's dominance in oil transactions [21]. Group 3: Impact on Russia - A change in Venezuela's regime could have severe economic implications for Russia, as lower oil prices could disrupt its state capitalism model, necessitating significant economic adjustments [21].