张尧浠:避险与宽松双驱动 金价仍有牛市新高前景

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to heightened geopolitical tensions, reaching a one-week high of $4,450, with a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous closing price of $4,328.35 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and later surged to a high of $4,455.48 before closing at $4,448.83, with a daily fluctuation of $111.42 [1] - The price recovered from a previous decline, indicating strong bullish momentum, and is expected to rely on support from the 5-10 day moving averages for further upward movement [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - On January 6, gold prices initially declined due to profit-taking after the recent rise, with the market awaiting significant economic data releases [3] - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold may challenge historical highs again [3] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which, combined with ongoing central bank gold purchases and persistent inflation above 2%, suggests a continued bullish trend for gold prices [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates a potential for a significant pullback to the $4,000-$3,900 range, but if the current bullish momentum continues, gold could rise to the $5,500-$6,000 range [5] - Weekly analysis shows that while there was a recent downturn, the overall trend remains upward, with support expected around the 10-week moving average at $4,230 and the 30-week moving average near $4,000 [5]