专家团队研判宏观经济形势 预计2026年中国经济稳中有进

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic analysis conference hosted by Peking University HSBC Business School focuses on the economic outlook for China and trade dynamics in Southeast Asia and the Middle East for the fourth quarter of 2025, aiming to provide forward-looking economic analysis and decision-making references [1]. Economic Outlook for China - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be 5.1%, with a slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter attributed to fluctuating fiscal spending [4]. - Exports in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations due to China's transition of electromechanical products to higher-end segments of the global value chain, indicating sustainable high growth in future exports [4]. - The outlook for 2026 includes the potential end of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the U.S., which could benefit domestic asset prices, and opportunities for revitalizing real estate and local state-owned assets [4]. Economic Situation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - The economic situation in the Greater Bay Area is characterized by stable industrial production, moderate recovery in exports, and pressure on domestic investment, with an expected growth rate of about 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. - External trade continues to grow, particularly in non-U.S. regions, although the decline in export price indices is squeezing profit margins for export companies [5]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline further, presenting a significant challenge, while strategies to expand domestic demand are anticipated to support consumption growth [5]. Southeast Asia Economic Dynamics - Private consumption in Southeast Asia remains robust, with moderate inflation and strong exports from countries like Vietnam and Singapore [5]. - The active trade between China and ASEAN, along with the signing of the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement, is expected to inject strong momentum into regional economic integration [5]. - The economic growth rate in ASEAN is projected to continue leading globally, benefiting from the restructuring of global supply chains and accelerating renewable energy transitions over the next five years [5]. Economic Dynamics with the Middle East - The Middle East economy is experiencing moderate recovery, with an expected GDP growth rate of 2.7% for the year, driven primarily by non-oil sectors [6]. - Bilateral trade shows divergence, with significant increases in exports from China to Qatar and imports from Egypt [6]. - Future strategies for Chinese enterprises should focus on a diversified competitive landscape that includes stable oil and gas sectors, non-oil growth, and high-tech projects [6]. General Economic Trends - China's economy has crossed the L-shaped inflection point, entering a stable growth phase that aligns with the 2035 development goals [8]. - The shift towards new and improved economic development is changing the dynamics of equity and debt markets, suggesting a growing emphasis on equity market opportunities [8]. - Structural issues in the economy include the need for improved domestic consumption and the urgency of upgrading traditional industries, with new growth drivers emerging in high-tech and digital sectors [9].