Meme 币率先走强，2026 年初的加密市场释放了什么信号？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Meme assets indicates a return of risk appetite in the market, but it also suggests that true consensus has not yet been established, as participants are merely seeking a place to express their emotions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of Meme assets is characterized by synchronized increases in market capitalization, trading volume, and open interest in derivatives, indicating that participants are not just buying but also betting on a longer-term continuation [3]. - In the current market phase, mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not providing clear direction, leading to uncertainty and a lack of long-term consensus [3][5]. - Meme assets thrive in uncertain environments as they do not require consensus or understanding of long-term value, serving as a "risk thermometer" to gauge market sentiment [3][5]. Group 2: Behavioral Shifts - The current Meme market is different from previous cycles, as the accumulation of open interest suggests that funds are using leverage to express their judgments, indicating a shift from mere emotional trading to more strategic positioning [5]. - When Meme assets transition from being expressions of emotion to expressions of positions, they begin to carry expectations, which can lead to rapid deleveraging if those expectations diverge [5][8]. - The market's focus on easily understandable assets like Meme indicates a lack of restored consensus, with participants opting for the most straightforward trading options available [7][8]. Group 3: Future Implications - For the market to transition from a "temporary marketplace" represented by Meme assets to a more stable environment, it requires clearer value anchors and a more organized funding structure [8]. - If Bitcoin, Ethereum, or broader altcoin markets can establish stronger trends following a liquidity recovery, Meme assets may signal a genuine return of risk appetite; otherwise, their popularity could mask a deeper consensus vacuum [8].