委内瑞拉局势骤然生变，风险溢价如何挑动黄金和原油？

Group 1 - The return of "geopolitical premium" indicates that geopolitical risks are becoming a dominant market factor, but the current macro backdrop of high supply and weak demand will limit its intensity [2] - Safe-haven sentiment is expected to rise selectively, with funds likely flowing into core safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, rather than a broad flight from risk assets [2] - Gold and silver have seen record performances, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, with prices reaching new highs; however, caution is advised due to potential passive fund sell-offs from upcoming Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing [2] Group 2 - The situation in Venezuela is being closely monitored, with potential for gold prices to maintain high levels unless further news emerges; if the Maduro government falls quickly without leading to a prolonged civil war, the geopolitical premium may quickly recede [4] - Despite significant geopolitical changes marked by Maduro's arrest, early signs suggest that the global oil market will respond relatively smoothly, with Venezuela's oil infrastructure reportedly unaffected by recent US attacks [4] - The US has indicated intentions to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and sell "large amounts" of oil to global buyers, despite Venezuela's production having drastically declined to less than 1% of global supply [4] Group 3 - Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has begun to cut oil production as exports have dropped to zero due to ongoing US oil sanctions, leading to increased pressure on the interim government [6] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on oil, with a notable rise in net long positions for US benchmark crude, reflecting market speculation regarding potential military actions in South America [6] - The new acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, may lead Venezuela into a prolonged political struggle, with short-term oil price spikes possible due to geopolitical risks, but global oversupply and Venezuela's minimal production will limit price increases [8]