国产AI芯片“觉醒”：推理赛道起飞，谁能再破寒武纪神话？

Core Insights - 2025 marks a pivotal year for domestic AI chips, with a shift in computing demand from training to inference, accelerated by DeepSeek's influence [2][3] - The market sees a surge in domestic chip companies, with significant IPOs and a focus on GPU development, despite concerns over competition from NVIDIA's H200 chip [2][7] Group 1: Domestic AI Chip Market Dynamics - The launch of DeepSeek has ignited a wave of domestic chip adoption, leading to a notable increase in inference computing demand [3][5] - By 2024, the market for AI inference chips in China is projected to grow to 1,626 billion yuan, with expectations to reach 3,106 billion yuan in 2025 [5] - Major players in the domestic market include Huawei, Cambricon, and Mozi Technology, focusing on cloud service provider applications and edge AI inference [5][6] Group 2: IPOs and Market Share - 2025 witnessed a significant number of domestic AI chip companies going public, with Moer Technology and Mozi Technology leading the way, achieving high opening stock prices [7][9] - Despite the IPO successes, domestic market share remains low, with NVIDIA holding approximately 66% of the AI accelerator market in China, while Huawei has about 23% [9][10] - Predictions indicate that by 2026, NVIDIA's market share in China may drop to 8%, while Huawei could capture 50% [10] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Many domestic AI chip manufacturers have yet to achieve profitability, with significant losses reported from 2022 to 2025 [12][13] - Revenue concentration among the top five clients remains high, with Moer Technology's revenue from top clients exceeding 98% in recent years [14][15] - The industry faces challenges related to advanced process limitations, with most domestic GPUs currently using 7nm or 14nm processes, while NVIDIA has advanced to 4nm [18][19] Group 4: Future Opportunities and Trends - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the construction of intelligent computing centers and increasing AI demands from internet companies [22][23] - Analysts predict that by 2026, high-end AI chips could account for 50% of the market, with a focus on low-end AI inference chips due to limited upstream supply [23]