3月末银行扎堆晒“成绩单” 2026机构仍看好银行板块

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the upcoming annual report disclosures of A-share listed banks, with Ping An Bank being the first to report on March 21, 2025, marking its second consecutive year of early disclosure [1][2] - The banking sector index increased by 12.05% in 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 17.66% [3] - The total market capitalization of 42 A-share banks surpassed 15 trillion yuan, increasing by approximately 2.1 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [3] Group 2 - Major state-owned banks are set to disclose their performance reports at the end of March, with a peak of 10 banks reporting on March 31, 2025 [2] - The performance of the banking sector in 2025 was driven by both funding and fundamental factors, with significant contributions from passive index funds and northbound capital [3] - A total of 35 out of 42 banks saw their stock prices rise, with Agricultural Bank of China leading with a 52.66% increase [3] Group 3 - Analysts expect the banking sector to maintain stable performance in 2026, supported by high dividend yields and a favorable market environment for dividend stocks [6] - The demand for high-dividend assets is anticipated to rise, particularly for stable state-owned banks, as new funds from the insurance industry are expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2026 [7] - The banking sector is projected to experience a valuation recovery, with estimates suggesting a return to a price-to-book ratio of around 1 [7] Group 4 - Historical data indicates that the banking sector has a high success rate for absolute and excess returns before the Spring Festival, with an average absolute return of 4.4% [8] - Recommendations for stock allocation include a stable base of 30% in state-owned banks and a more aggressive 70% in quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks [9]