紧盯周五非农，美联储1月降息的关键因素：失业率升至4.7%

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut if the unemployment rate rises to 4.7% in December [1][2]. Labor Market Signals - Analysts indicate that the December employment report follows the weak November data, with expectations of a 4.7% unemployment rate, which is key for maintaining the Fed's rate cut trajectory [2]. - Job growth is projected at 75,000, but adjustments suggest that actual employment growth is nearing stagnation, supported by a downward trend in job postings and stable initial unemployment claims [2]. Policy Path and Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points in 2024, followed by a pause and an additional 75 basis points in 2025, with current rates at the upper limit of the neutral zone indicating potential for further cuts [3]. - Historical trends suggest that a significant weakening in the labor market will prompt the Fed to resume rate cuts, despite the unpredictability of monthly data [3]. Macro Environment Supporting Deeper Rate Cuts - Other macro indicators, such as oil prices remaining below $65 per barrel, help alleviate inflationary pressures, while the ISM manufacturing index is expected to remain in contraction territory [4]. - The risk balance for 2026 leans towards a weak labor market and further inflation decline, suggesting a higher likelihood of rate cuts exceeding 60 basis points compared to market expectations [4].