Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-06 09:15Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.5%, reaching a nearly 10-year high, marking a 13-day consecutive gain [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) rose over 1%, with a trading volume of nearly 400 million yuan, achieving two consecutive days of gains [1]. - The top ten component stocks of the Battery 50 ETF show mixed performance, with significant gains from companies like XianDai Intelligent (+2.84%) and GreenMei (+2.49%), while others like Ningde Times (-0.93%) experienced declines [5]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 7% yesterday and hit the daily limit today, driven by a shift in supply-demand dynamics towards a tighter balance [4]. - According to Huatai Securities, the oversupply of lithium carbonate is expected to improve significantly by the first half of 2025, with a projected cumulative oversupply of 50,200 tons in 2024, narrowing to 7,955 tons by Q2 2025, and turning into a shortage in Q3 and Q4 with gaps of 15,200 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [7]. Group 3: Demand Growth in Energy Storage - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, driven by high growth in power batteries and energy storage applications, particularly in AI data centers and renewable energy storage [8]. - Dongwu Securities forecasts a two-year sustained growth cycle for energy storage, with domestic bidding for energy storage expected to reach 190 GWh in 2025, a 138% increase, and cumulative installations projected to exceed 163 GWh, a 47% year-on-year increase [9]. Group 4: Global Energy Storage Trends - In the U.S., the demand for energy storage is expected to rise due to the rapid growth of AI data centers, with projected installations of approximately 53 GWh in 2025 and 80 GWh in 2026, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [10]. - European markets are also experiencing growth, with expected installations of 20 GWh in 2025 and 42 GWh in 2026, driven by supportive capacity pricing policies [10]. Group 5: Battery Industry Outlook - The lithium battery materials sector is witnessing positive changes, with energy storage demand exceeding expectations, leading to a recovery in industry sentiment [11]. - The electrolyte supply chain is expected to see an upward trend, supported by energy storage demand and rising lithium carbonate costs, with a projected tight balance in 2026 [11]. Group 6: Investment Strategy in Battery Sector - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is highlighted for its significant exposure to energy storage (27%) and solid-state battery technology (42%), making it a favorable investment choice amid the expected demand surge [13][15]. - The ETF's management fee is notably low at 0.15% per year, enhancing its attractiveness for investors looking to capitalize on the battery sector's growth [15].