Mhmarkets迈汇：金价直指5000美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold will increasingly serve as a hedge in investment portfolios, with an average price expected to reach $4,538 per ounce in 2026, while silver may outperform with potential price peaks between $135 and $309 [1][3] - The bullish outlook is largely driven by supply-side tightening, with North America's 13 major gold miners expected to see a 2% decline in production to 19.2 million ounces, indicating previous supply expectations were overly optimistic [3] - Production costs are projected to rise by 3% to $1,600 per ounce, yet mining companies' profitability is expected to surge, with total EBITDA projected to increase by 41% to approximately $65 billion by 2026 [3] Group 2 - For risk-tolerant investors, the allocation value of silver is increasing, with the current gold-silver ratio of about 59 suggesting silver's performance will surpass that of gold [3] - The unique state of the gold market is characterized as "overbought but under-invested," with a 14% increase in investment demand potentially pushing gold prices to $5,000 [3] - Global central banks are optimizing their reserve structures, with current gold purchasing levels indicating a movement towards an ideal gold allocation target of 30% [3][4] Group 3 - As the U.S. monetary policy enters a loosening cycle, the upward momentum of gold prices in an inflationary environment is expected to be further released [4] - The attractiveness of gold will continue to enhance as long as interest rates trend downward, reinforcing its core position in diversified asset allocation [4]