Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions have recently increased due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, but risk aversion has cooled after several days of market digestion [1] - The world's largest gold ETF has reduced its holdings twice recently, with a significant cut of 5.43 tons on January 2, bringing total holdings to 1065.13 tons, indicating a slight decline in bullish sentiment towards gold [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihao believes that expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have driven gold prices higher, but the likelihood of a rate cut in January is low, suggesting investors should be cautious of short-term price corrections [1] - On the technical front, the market has shown strength with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $4416 and resistance at $4500 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil sales prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, with the price of its flagship Arab Light crude reaching a five-year low, indicating weak demand from Asian buyers [2] - The price spread between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to the highest level since August, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2] - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has been increasing production, leading to a situation where global supply exceeds demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of significant oversupply pressures on oil prices [2] - On the technical side, the market has shown strong upward movement with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar is showing weakness, with potential to break previous lows, as geopolitical risks provide limited support and a rate cut cycle looms [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% at the beginning of last year to 4.6% in November, with projections indicating it may exceed 5% soon [3] - Employment market pressures may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, with potential cuts of up to 125 basis points to 2.25% by year-end if labor market conditions worsen [3] - Technically, the dollar index has formed a bearish pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a failed challenge at key resistance levels [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong upward movement recently, breaking out of a previous consolidation range, suggesting potential for further gains [4] - The market is expected to test support at the 52214 level during any pullbacks [4] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is exhibiting strong upward momentum, with indicators showing a bullish trend following a golden cross between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] - There is potential for further price increases, with support at the 5.92 level [5]
百利好晚盘分析：利多逐步消化 警惕金价回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-06 09:19