投资进化论丨2026年投资不焦虑指南：合理的投资预期很重要！

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of setting reasonable investment expectations to navigate market volatility effectively and avoid irrational decision-making [2][3][9]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 6, 2026, the A-share market opened positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5%, marking a 13-day winning streak and reaching a 10-year high [1]. - The year 2025 was characterized by a strong performance in the first three quarters, attracting many investors, but the fourth quarter saw increased volatility, leading to anxiety among investors [1]. Group 2: Importance of Setting Expectations - Setting reasonable investment expectations serves as a guide for actions, helping investors maintain composure during market fluctuations [2][3]. - Unrealistic expectations can lead to imbalanced investment behavior, such as panic selling during market downturns or excessive buying during uptrends [2]. Group 3: How to Set Reasonable Expectations - The article outlines two core dimensions for setting expectations: "knowing oneself" and "knowing others" [4]. - "Knowing oneself" involves accurately assessing one's risk tolerance through a risk assessment questionnaire, which is crucial for aligning investment choices with actual risk capacity [5]. - "Knowing others" refers to understanding the characteristics of different fund products and market conditions to establish realistic expectation ranges [6]. Group 4: Fund Performance Insights - Historical performance data from various fund indices since 2015 indicates that equity and mixed funds have achieved annualized returns of approximately 6.93% to 8.87%, with annualized volatility ranging from 16% to 22% [8]. - In contrast, bond funds have shown more stability with an annualized return of 3.79%, while money market funds have lower returns, mostly in the "1% era" [6][8]. Group 5: Market Outlook for 2026 - Analysts suggest that the A-share market in 2026 may experience a "slow bull" trend, transitioning from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" growth, with increased structural differentiation [9]. - Investors are advised to lower expectations for broad market rallies and focus on balanced allocations in sectors with higher growth potential [9].