在沪指13连阳中走向2026：一份真诚的ETF年度配置思路

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into 2026, highlighting the need for investors to adapt their strategies in response to market changes and macroeconomic trends [3][4]. Group 1: Macro Drivers - The two main macro growth drivers for 2026 are the deepening G2 competition in the AI industry chain and the upward initiation of the global capital expenditure cycle [5][11]. - The AI sector is identified as a key area of global technological competition, with both the US and China advancing their strategies to integrate AI into various industries [6][9]. - The global capital expenditure cycle is expected to rise due to developed countries focusing on re-industrialization and developing countries accelerating their industrialization processes, supported by favorable policies [12][14]. Group 2: Profitability Focus - The market's focus is shifting from "valuation expansion" to "profit realization," with expectations for a further increase in overall profitability in 2026 [15][18]. - The recovery in profitability is anticipated to be supported by policy initiatives aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting technological innovation [21][24]. - A market driven by profitability rather than valuation expansion is seen as healthier and more discerning, rewarding genuine growth [23]. Group 3: Investment Framework - Investors are encouraged to establish an investment framework that aligns with the current market dynamics, emphasizing the use of index-based tools to achieve average market returns [25][26]. - The recommended investment strategy includes three layers: a stable base with broad market indices, a focus on high-growth sectors like AI and advanced manufacturing, and defensive positions to mitigate volatility [27][30]. Group 4: ETF Allocation Strategy - A specific ETF allocation strategy is proposed, focusing on balanced broad-based ETFs for stability, growth-oriented ETFs for capturing industry trends, and dividend-focused ETFs for cash flow stability [31][32]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of selecting indices that reflect the evolving economic landscape and capitalizing on high-growth sectors such as AI and advanced manufacturing [33][36]. - Additionally, diversifying into low-correlation assets like gold and international equities is suggested to further mitigate risk [42].