6美元/磅！美国铜价创历史新高，特朗普关税后再狂飙！全球经济要大变天？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices, breaking the $6 per pound mark, is driven by a combination of increased demand from emerging industries, supply constraints, and a macroeconomic environment conducive to asset inflation [3][11][13]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 6, 2026, the COMEX copper futures contract surpassed $6 per pound, marking a historical high and a nearly 6% increase from $5.69 per pound [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price rose over 40% in 2025, reaching a peak of $12,960 per ton by year-end [5]. - The price surge continued into 2026, with LME copper exceeding $13,000 per ton on January 5, 2026, which contributed to the spike in New York copper prices [5]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The primary driver of increased copper demand is the AI revolution and the transition to renewable energy, with AI data centers consuming significantly more copper than traditional servers [8]. - The demand from emerging sectors has compensated for the decline in demand from the real estate sector, maintaining robust global copper demand [8]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Global copper supply faced unexpected reductions in 2025 due to frequent mining accidents and production interruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate output [9]. - The breakeven price for new copper mining projects has exceeded $13,000 per ton, making it challenging to increase supply unless prices remain high [9]. - U.S. tariff policies have redirected refined copper that would have gone to Asia back to the U.S. market, exacerbating supply tightness in other regions [9]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Environment - A loose macroeconomic environment, characterized by fiscal expansion and monetary easing, has led investors to seek physical assets for value preservation, enhancing copper's appeal as a hedge [11]. - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased pressure on the dollar, making dollar-denominated copper a popular choice for investors [11]. - Analysts predict that LME three-month copper prices could range between $10,300 and $16,000 per ton in 2026, with New York copper potentially reaching $7 per pound [11]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The copper price surge reflects a broader economic shift from traditional industries to emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy, as well as a return to physical assets from fiat currency [13]. - The increase in copper prices highlights vulnerabilities in global supply chains amid rising protectionism, which has led to higher domestic costs for downstream industries [13]. - The impact of rising copper prices extends beyond investment portfolios, affecting consumer costs in everyday products such as appliances and vehicles [13].