一级市场“国进民退”？国家队直投渗透率已经到45%了

Core Insights - The Chinese primary market has undergone significant structural changes over the past five years, marking the entry into the "national team era" where state-owned capital is a dominant player rather than a supplementary force [1][4]. Group 1: National Capital Penetration - The penetration rate of state-owned institutions in the primary market has steadily increased from 35.46% in 2021 to 44.55% in 2025, a rise of 9.09 percentage points [2][12]. - Currently, more than 4 out of every 10 investment transactions in the primary market involve state-owned institutions [3]. - The number of investment events involving state-owned institutions showed resilience, with participation in 3,211 transactions in 2021, dropping to 2,852 in 2023, but rebounding to 4,035 by 2025, a five-year high [9][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Changes - The increase in state-owned capital penetration signifies a shift in investment decision-making logic, focusing more on strategic alignment with national policies and long-term value creation [16]. - Entrepreneurs are adjusting their financing strategies to align with state policies, making it crucial for them to gain recognition from state-owned institutions [17][18]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with state-owned institutions leveraging their advantages in capital scale and risk tolerance, while private VC/PE firms maintain their unique value in decision-making efficiency and market sensitivity [19]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current growth trend suggests that the penetration rate of state-owned capital could exceed 50% in the next 2-3 years, leading to a new phase where state capital is predominant and private capital is supplementary [20]. - This transition presents both opportunities, such as stable funding for innovation, and challenges, including maintaining market vitality and balancing strategic direction with market efficiency [21][22].