全年来看，一季度或许胜率最高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market momentum is building, with the first quarter potentially having the highest winning rate for the entire year [3] - The domestic market continues to show a "good start" trend, with trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.8 trillion yuan, a new high for the period [3] - If trading volume surpasses the symbolic 3 trillion yuan in the coming days, it may attract more individual investors, leading to increased market liquidity [3] Group 2 - There is notable interest from overseas funds, as evidenced by the appreciation of the RMB to 6.97, indicating a return of capital to Chinese assets [3] - The Hong Kong market has also performed well recently, suggesting that the upward momentum is supported by diverse sources of capital, including significant overseas fund inflows [3] - Institutional funds are repositioning for 2026, with a growing consensus that the technology sector may become the main focus in the first quarter [3] Group 3 - The focus on artificial intelligence is shifting towards downstream applications, indicating a trend in the industry [4] - There are several new signals emerging from policy developments that could impact the market [4]