故宫联名、米哈游撑腰，Suplay宣布赴港IPO，是下一家卡牌黑马还是？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese card industry is witnessing a shift from a focus on high sales volume to a strategy emphasizing limited releases and higher prices, with a focus on collectible value rather than mass consumption [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Suplay, established in 2019, is a representative company in this evolving landscape, focusing on collectible non-battle cards rather than mainstream card games [1][3] - The brand "Kakawow" operates under a business model that treats cards as "collectible cultural products," with single card prices generally exceeding 10 yuan [2][3] Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Suplay's business model is characterized as a "scarcity game," differentiating itself from traditional card games by emphasizing cultural storytelling and limited edition releases [2][7] - The company has built a comprehensive brand matrix, collaborating with over 800 domestic and international designers and brands, and has successfully integrated both self-developed and top-tier licensed IPs [3][7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Suplay's gross margin reached 54.5% in 2023, with adjusted net profit margin increasing from 11.0% to 30.5% [7][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 281 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 92.5%, although it remains significantly smaller than industry giants [8][9] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Suplay faces challenges due to heavy reliance on a few key IPs, with the top five IPs contributing 77.7% of total revenue, and the largest IP accounting for over 32% [8][9] - The company must balance the need for scarcity in its collectible cards with the desire for revenue growth, which poses a natural conflict [9] Group 5: Future Strategies - Suplay's future strategies include global expansion, vertical integration of the supply chain, and horizontal diversification of product offerings [10][11] - The company aims to leverage its unique cultural IPs for international markets while also exploring broader consumer card categories [11][12]