3 6 Ke·2026-01-06 12:19Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a significant upcycle driven by AI demand, extending from HBM to traditional storage sectors, with Micron's gross margin reaching a historical high of 66-68% for the next quarter, indicating a stronger cycle than previous ones [1][3]. Group 1: AI Demand and Storage Market Dynamics - The price increase of storage products reflects the supply-demand relationship in the market, primarily driven by AI server demand [3]. - The current AI storage cycle is characterized by a shift in focus from training to inference, leading to differentiated demands for "low latency, high capacity, and high bandwidth" storage [3][14]. - The three major manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) are prioritizing capital expenditures towards HBM and DRAM, resulting in structural supply-demand imbalances and significant price increases [3][6]. Group 2: Role of Different Storage Types in AI Servers - HBM serves as the "performance ceiling" for AI servers, being a high-bandwidth, high-power product that directly impacts the model scale and response speed [11]. - DRAM (DDR5) acts as a data exchange hub, connecting HBM and NAND, and is crucial for handling concurrent tasks in AI servers [12]. - NAND (SSD) functions as a fast persistent layer for frequently accessed data, while HDD serves as a low-cost container for large volumes of cold data [12][14]. Group 3: Addressing the "Memory Wall" Challenge - The "memory wall" bottleneck arises from the disparity between computing speed and data transfer speed, leading to high GPU idle rates [5][16]. - Solutions to this issue include upgrading HBM to 16-Hi stacks to enhance bandwidth and implementing 3D stacked SRAM to reduce latency [18][19]. - The integration of computing capabilities within storage (compute-in-memory) is anticipated to be a long-term solution to the "memory wall" problem [21]. Group 4: HBM Market Supply and Demand - HBM demand is closely tied to AI chip shipments, with expectations for HBM supply to increase by over 60% by 2026 due to significant capital investments from the three major manufacturers [6][24]. - The combined monthly HBM production capacity of the three manufacturers is projected to rise from approximately 390,000 wafers to 510,000 wafers by the end of 2026, translating to an estimated supply of 41.9 billion GB of HBM [29][34]. - The HBM market is expected to be in a "tight balance" state in 2026, with demand estimated at around 42 billion GB, indicating a competitive landscape among manufacturers [39][40].