Nvidia(US:NVDA) 智通财经网·2026-01-06 13:03Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Nvidia has dropped 9.1% since reaching a historical high on October 29, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending and the company's market dominance [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - Nvidia's stock price has increased over 1300% since the end of 2022, with its market capitalization surpassing $5 trillion, but it has since lost $460 billion in value, reducing its three-year cumulative gain to nearly 1200% [1]. - The stock's contribution to the S&P 500 index since the bull market began in October 2022 is approximately 16%, significantly higher than Apple's 7% [4]. - Despite recent declines, demand for Nvidia's stock remains strong, with expectations of a 53% sales growth and a 57% profit growth for the fiscal year ending January 2027, compared to Apple's projected growth of around 10% [4]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook - Among 82 analysts covering Nvidia, 76 have a buy rating, indicating a strong positive sentiment, with an average target price suggesting a potential 37% upside in the next 12 months [5]. - Nvidia is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing companies in the public market, according to analysts [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia faces unprecedented competition from rivals like AMD and major clients such as Google and Amazon, which are developing their own chips to reduce costs [4][6]. - AMD is projected to see a 60% increase in its data center business revenue by 2026, reaching nearly $260 billion, indicating a significant competitive threat to Nvidia [6]. - Major clients contributing over 40% of Nvidia's revenue are investing in self-developed chips, which could challenge Nvidia's market share [6]. Group 4: Profit Margins and Valuation - Nvidia's gross margin is expected to decline to 71.2% for the fiscal year 2026 due to increased costs from the Blackwell chip series, with a recovery anticipated in 2027 [8]. - The current valuation of Nvidia is 25 times the expected earnings for the next 12 months, which is relatively low compared to other major tech companies, making it an attractive option for investors [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current market valuation reflects overly pessimistic expectations about the industry cycle and AI deployment, presenting a potential investment opportunity [10].