Nvidia(US:NVDA) Feng Huang Wang·2026-01-06 13:23Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has dropped 9.1% since reaching an all-time high on October 29, 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI investments and Nvidia's market dominance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock price has seen a significant increase of over 1300% since the end of 2022, with its market capitalization surpassing $5 trillion, but has since lost approximately $460 billion in value [1] - The company's stock performance has lagged behind the S&P 500 index, indicating growing investor concerns [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia holds over 90% market share in the AI accelerator sector, but competitors like AMD are gaining traction with large data center orders from companies such as OpenAI and Oracle [2][3] - Major tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are developing their own chips to avoid the high costs associated with Nvidia's products, which could impact Nvidia's revenue as these companies account for over 40% of its income [3] Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - Nvidia's gross margin is projected to remain in the mid-70% range for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, but is expected to decline to 71.2% in fiscal year 2026 due to rising costs from the Blackwell chip series [4] - Analysts express concerns that any signs of weakness in Nvidia's pricing strategy could negatively impact its profit margins, prompting increased scrutiny from investors [4] - Some analysts believe that the current valuation of Nvidia suggests an end to the industry cycle, presenting a potential investment opportunity, contrasting with previous market peaks [4]