?大摩：市场低估美股牛市 六大催化剂将点燃风险偏好

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report led by top strategist Michael Wilson indicates that market consensus is significantly underestimating the positive impact of multiple bullish catalysts on risk appetite and valuations as the market approaches 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target for the S&P 500 index at 7800 points by the end of 2026, suggesting a broad-based stock market bull market driven by a rolling recovery [2] - The firm anticipates a shift in market leadership from large-cap tech stocks benefiting from AI to mid-cap and cyclical core industries by 2026 [2] - The report emphasizes that the current market consensus is underestimating several bullish catalysts, including deregulation, operational leverage, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] Group 2: Key Catalysts - Earnings growth trajectory is projected to reach 15-20% by late 2026, driven by declining expense growth and improved pricing power, with an expected net margin expansion of 40 basis points for the S&P 500 due to accelerated AI adoption [3] - Deregulation in the financial sector is expected to significantly enhance bank capital productivity, leading to strong growth in commercial and industrial loans [3] - Monetary policy is anticipated to include further interest rate cuts in early 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly, enhancing market liquidity [3] Group 3: Economic Environment - The report highlights a potential acceleration in U.S. manufacturing activity due to the return of high-end manufacturing and favorable interest rates [4] - The "wallet share" shift from services to goods is ongoing, with improved pricing power for goods expected to boost consumer spending [4] - A weaker dollar and low gasoline prices are projected to support overall earnings growth for the S&P 500, providing a positive buffer for consumers [5] Group 4: Economic Growth Expectations - The "Goldilocks" scenario for the U.S. economy is anticipated, characterized by moderate growth and stable inflation, with the economy expected to transition to a favorable growth trajectory by 2026 [6] - Morgan Stanley defines the current phase as a "rolling recovery," marking the end of a three-year rolling recession, with a focus on earnings expansion and cyclical industry rotation [7] - The firm recommends an investment strategy of overweighting cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary while underweighting defensive sectors like consumer staples and real estate [7]