瑞银继续看涨黄金至4750美元/盎司：终结牛市的三大信号都还没看见

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that UBS has identified a "high-level frenzy" in the gold market, with a target price of $4,750 per ounce by 2026, and believes that the current upward trend in gold prices is not yet over despite concerns of nearing its peak [1][4] - The recent surge in gold prices is significantly influenced by the performance of platinum group metals, with platinum, silver, and palladium experiencing greater price increases, which has amplified the upward movement of gold in a thin liquidity market [2] - UBS highlights three core drivers supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold: declining U.S. real interest rates, rising term premiums in developed markets, and strong demand for asset diversification [4][5] Group 2 - Demand for gold is being supported by multiple factors, including a long-term increase in Chinese investment in gold as confidence in traditional assets declines, with approximately $48 trillion in broad money shifting towards gold and equity markets [6] - Central banks and supranational institutions continue to purchase gold, with emerging market central banks likely to increase their gold reserves, providing a safety net for gold prices [7] - Private investment in gold remains stable, with consistent inflows into gold ETFs, indicating a rational approach to asset diversification among private investors, while gold mining stocks are seen as undervalued and have potential for price correction [8] Group 3 - UBS outlines three clear signals that would indicate the end of the gold price rally: the availability of Russian foreign exchange reserves for the central bank's use, the completion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, and increased certainty in global fiscal policies [9][10]