13年来最乐观时刻！新兴市场债券相对美债风险溢价创低位

Group 1 - The confidence of global bond investors in emerging markets has reached its highest level in 13 years, with the risk premium of emerging market sovereign dollar bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries dropping to approximately 2.5 percentage points, the lowest level since January 2013 [1] - According to JPMorgan's risk premium indicator, the current spread has narrowed by nearly 5 percentage points compared to five years ago, reflecting an influx of investors into the emerging market sovereign bond market amid debt restructuring, IMF-supported fiscal reforms, and improvements in external balances [1] - Emerging market fundamentals are improving, attracting sustained capital inflows, with developing economies currently achieving an average current account surplus, while developed countries are experiencing deficits [1] Group 2 - Anders Faergemann, head of emerging market sovereign bonds at PineBridge in London, stated that the strong fundamentals in emerging markets, combined with favorable technical factors, support a positive outlook for this asset class despite historically narrow spreads [2] - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Sovereign Total Return Index has seen gains since the beginning of 2026, providing investors with over 13% returns last year [2] - Luis Olguin, a fund manager at William Blair, noted that the current environment of robust fundamentals, expectations of a soft landing for the economy, and prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts are continuously attracting funds into emerging market bonds [2] Group 3 - The decline in credit default swap (CDS) premiums for emerging markets reflects a significant alleviation of concerns regarding sovereign defaults, with the Markit emerging market CDS premium dropping to 124 basis points at the beginning of this year, the lowest level in eight years [2][3] - The enhancement of investor confidence and improvements in macro fundamentals are creating a virtuous cycle, further increasing the overall attractiveness of emerging market bonds [3]