Can the US Launch of NVO's Wegovy Pill Reignite Momentum in 2026?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's shares increased by 5.2% on Monday and approximately 4% in pre-market trading due to the U.S. launch of the Wegovy pill, a once-daily oral semaglutide aimed at weight reduction and cardiovascular risk reduction [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Position - The Wegovy pill, approved by the FDA in December 2025, is the first GLP-1 medication available in oral form for weight management, targeting over 100 million Americans with obesity [2] - The oral formulation offers a more convenient administration method compared to injectables, potentially enhancing patient adherence and reducing treatment burden [3] - The launch is expected to help Novo Nordisk recover from a slowdown in injectable sales due to increased competition, particularly from Eli Lilly's Zepbound [4] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Novo Nordisk is expanding Wegovy's access through strategic partnerships and broader distribution channels, including major U.S. pharmacies and telehealth providers, aiming to reduce reliance on unapproved alternatives [5] - The pricing strategy for the Wegovy pill includes tiered pricing, with self-pay patients starting at approximately $149 per month, while commercially insured patients may pay as little as $25 per month [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is a significant competitor in the obesity treatment market, with multiple new molecules in development, including orforglipron, which has already filed for regulatory approval in the U.S. [7] - The obesity treatment market is gaining attention due to its substantial and underpenetrated opportunity, with smaller biotech firms like Viking Therapeutics also advancing GLP-1-based therapies [8] Group 4: Financial Performance and Estimates - Over the past six months, Novo Nordisk shares have decreased by 20.5%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [11] - The company's shares are currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 15.7, lower than the industry average of 17.54, and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [14] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have declined from $3.67 to $3.57 per share, and for 2026, estimates have dropped from $3.91 to $3.51 [17]