大摩：市场低估美股牛市 六大催化剂将点燃风险偏好

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report led by top strategist Michael Wilson indicates that market consensus is significantly underestimating multiple bullish catalysts that will positively impact risk appetite and valuations as the market approaches 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target for the S&P 500 index at 7800 points by the end of 2026, defining this period as a "broad market bull market under rolling recovery" [2] - The firm anticipates a shift in market leadership from large-cap tech stocks benefiting from AI to mid-cap and cyclical core industries [2][6] - The report emphasizes that the current market consensus is underestimating several bullish catalysts, including deregulation, operational leverage, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2][3] Group 2: Earnings Growth and Economic Factors - Morgan Stanley's model predicts that earnings per share (EPS) growth could reach 15% to 20% by late 2026, driven by declining expense growth and stronger pricing power [2][3] - The firm expects a significant acceleration in AI adoption this year, contributing to a 40 basis point expansion in net margins for the S&P 500 [2] - The anticipated deregulation in the financial sector is expected to unlock significant capital productivity, leading to strong growth in commercial and industrial loans [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Consumer Trends - Morgan Stanley economists forecast further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in early 2026, along with monthly purchases of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds to enhance market liquidity [3] - The report highlights a shift in consumer spending from services to goods, with stronger pricing power in goods expected to benefit overall consumer spending [4] - The anticipated impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act (OBBBA) is projected to increase U.S. personal income by approximately $65 billion by 2026 [4] Group 4: Economic Environment - The report describes a "Goldilocks" economic environment for the U.S. in 2026, characterized by moderate growth and stable inflation, with a downward trajectory for benchmark interest rates [5] - Morgan Stanley asserts that the U.S. stock market has transitioned from a "rolling recession" to a "rolling recovery," supported by improved cost structures and strong earnings revisions [6] - The firm defines the current situation as a "second-phase bull market under rolling recovery," emphasizing the return of risk appetite and investment breadth in financial markets [6]