AMRO何东：多边合作是区域经济稳健发展的关键｜连线2026

Core Insights - The global economy is at a historical turning point, with increasing differentiation in growth, inflation uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions, impacting the economic landscape significantly [1] - The ASEAN+3 region has shown strong resilience amidst global economic challenges, supported by investment inflows, technological innovation, and sound policies [1][2] Economic Performance - The ASEAN+3 region's economic performance remains robust, with an upward revision of growth forecasts compared to earlier in the year [3] - Despite concerns over high tariffs imposed by the U.S., the region benefits from active investment in artificial intelligence and semiconductor exports, which have seen growth rates exceeding 20% [3][6] Policy Support - The region's economic stability is bolstered by effective policy measures, with approximately half of the central banks lowering interest rates and targeted fiscal policies providing support [3] - The trade policy uncertainty index has decreased significantly from previous peaks, indicating improved conditions for trade negotiations among ASEAN economies and the U.S. [4] Investment and Integration - Future growth in the region will hinge on investment-driven integration, continuous investment in artificial intelligence, and deepening multilateral cooperation [2][8] - China’s rapid advancements in green technology present significant investment and technological collaboration opportunities for ASEAN countries, enhancing regional production networks [6][7] Financial Integration - Financial integration is crucial for supporting economic development, although it may introduce certain vulnerabilities [8] - The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization aims to strengthen regional financial safety nets, facilitating deeper financial integration [8] China's Role - China, as the world's second-largest economy with a GDP of approximately $19 trillion, plays a pivotal role in regional cooperation and economic dynamics [10] - To solidify its position, China must enhance domestic demand, particularly in consumption, while maintaining its export competitiveness [10] Future Outlook - The ASEAN+3 region's growth prospects are tied to a strong consensus on promoting regional integration as a means to enhance economic resilience [12] - A pragmatic approach to multilateral cooperation is essential for advancing specific policy goals and avoiding fragmentation in global economic relations [12]