Freedom Capital Downgrades Chevron as Oil Market Fundamentals Weaken

Core Viewpoint - Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Chevron from Hold to Sell, setting a price target of $165, with shares declining over 3% intraday following the announcement [1]. Industry Summary - The recent rally in U.S. oil and gas equities has occurred despite a deteriorating fundamental backdrop, with declining oil prices and an oversupplied market being overlooked by investors, creating heightened risk [2]. - Optimism in the sector, partly due to U.S. operations in Venezuela, is considered misplaced, as a global oil surplus is expected to persist at least through the first half of 2026, continuing to pressure hydrocarbon prices [3]. - The downgrade reflects a 9% quarter-over-quarter decline in average WTI crude prices during Q4 2025, along with lower refined product prices, indicating weak fourth-quarter results and potential pressure on U.S. oil and gas stock prices during the upcoming earnings season [4].