地缘冲突扰动国际原油市场，业内称长期利空｜油市跌宕

Group 1 - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has led to increased uncertainty in Venezuela, a country rich in oil reserves, resulting in a rise in international oil prices [2] - As of January 5, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was 1.07%, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 yuan/ton, but the adjustment was suspended due to insufficient price change [2][3] - The current oil price adjustment mechanism in China has resulted in no changes to gasoline and diesel prices as the adjustment amount was less than 50 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - Supply-demand imbalance is a key factor influencing the current international oil price trend, with OPEC+ likely to pause production increases while non-OPEC+ production remains high [4] - Analysts have differing views on the next round of fuel price adjustments, with some expecting an increase due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, while others predict a downward trend due to high US oil inventories [4][5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Venezuela conflict, are expected to create short-term upward pressure on oil prices, but long-term recovery of Venezuelan oil production could lead to increased global supply [5][6]